According to data from the 2020 Sample Registration System, India’s overall fertility rate has declined by 20% over the past decade. The current decline means that India will not overtake China to become the most populous nation in the world.
The total fertility rate of Hindu women went down to 1.94, Muslim women to 2.2, Christian women to 1.88, Sikhs to 1.61 and Jains to 1.6, etc. What does this mean for India?
India has made history as the government’s efforts to control population growth finally yield the long-awaited result. So much so that the fertility rate has even fallen below replacement level. This momentum of falling fertility rates is sure to have positive connotations for the country whose population may now not exceed that of China by 2030.
All communities are experiencing a decline in fertility. The total fertility rate of Hindu women was 1.94 and that of Muslim women was 2.2. The Christian community has a fertility rate of 1.88, the Sikh community 1.61, the Jain community 1.6 and the Buddhist and Neo-Buddhist community 1.39. Simply put, that’s the average number of children in a nuclear family.
Replacement level fertility represents the level at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, thus leading to zero population growth if this level is maintained over a long enough period. This rate is around 2.1 children per woman for most countries, although it may vary slightly depending on mortality rates. Replacement fertility will lead to zero population growth only if mortality rates remain constant and migration has no effect.
Overpopulation in India has been a big challenge and most of the country’s problems like poverty, unemployment and illiteracy are a consequence of the soaring numbers. According to data from the Sample Registration System 2020, India’s overall fertility rate – the number of children born per 1,000 women in the reproductive age group of 15 to 49 years in a year – decreased by 20% over the past decade.
The current decline means that India will not overtake China to become the most populous nation in the world. According to the latest data, the average general fertility rate is 68.7 for 2018-2020 while for 2008-2010 it was 86.1. The decline in the fertility rate can be attributed to several structural interventions, such as increasing the age of marriage, improving the female literacy rate, and the easy and wider availability of modern contraceptive methods, among others. .
The sample registration system data is in line with the National Family Health Survey-5 which illustrated India’s total fertility rate – births per woman of childbearing age – fell from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2.0 in 2019-21.
However, the decline in the synthetic fertility index is not uniform since it is 20.2% in rural areas against 15.6% in urban areas. The TFR of a rural woman is 2.2 while that of an urban woman is 1.6. Therefore, it could be argued that while social and economic developments could be driving the decline in fertility rates nationwide, literacy, economic empowerment, women’s awareness and agency remain disproportionately distributed, resulting in anomalies.
The National Family Health Survey (covering 14 states and UT) found a total fertility rate ranging from 1.4 in Chandigarh to 2.4 in Uttar Pradesh. Many states have reached replacement level of fertility (2.1) except Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh.
According to reports, five states with a total fertility rate above 2 were Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Manipur. Just below the total fertility rate 2 were Haryana, Assam, Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Mizoram at 1.9. Six states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha – were at 1.8. Further down at 1.7 were Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Tripura. And the TFR was the lowest in this survey in West Bengal, at 1.6.
Significantly, the data shows that the fertility rate of Muslims has seen the steepest decline among all religious communities over the past two decades. The data also shows that Jammu and Kashmir – a Muslim-majority region – has seen the biggest drop in overall fertility rate among all states.
Despite its declining fertility, India still has the second largest population in the world. However large or rapid the decline, the population growth rate is estimated at 1.9% per year. Only three countries in the world have a higher growth rate: Nigeria, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Declining fertility is attributed to increased literacy, urbanization, industrialization, modern communications and transportation, and the status of women. The availability of government family planning services has also contributed to the decline in fertility. The decline in fertility has occurred more rapidly in urban areas, which are concentrated in cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants.
The overall contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) has increased significantly from 54% to 67% in the country, according to the Union Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare, Dr. Bharati Pravin Pawar. The use of modern methods of contraception has also increased in almost all states/UTs. Unmet need for family planning has dropped significantly from 13% to 9%. Unmet need for spacing, which has remained a major problem in India in the past, has fallen to less than 4%.
Institutional births have increased dramatically, from 79% to 89% in India. Even in rural areas, around 87% of births take place in health facilities and 94% in urban areas. Population growth is attributed to improved health and mortality. Life expectancy rose to 60 years and infant mortality fell to 74 per 1,000 live births.
The total fertility rate – which is the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime – had fallen from 2.2 in 2015-2016 to 2.0 in 2019-21, according to the findings of the fifth national family health survey cycle. Survey, or NFHS-5. India’s total fertility rate of two is currently below the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 children per woman.
Meanwhile, below replacement fertility ultimately results in negative population growth and long-term population extinction. Between 1992-93 and 2019-21, India’s total fertility rate fell from 3.4 children to 2.0 children.
The total fertility rate ranges from 1.1 children per woman in Sikkim to three children per woman in Bihar. Five states have yet to reach a replacement fertility level of 2.1, according to the NFHS-5. These states are Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26) and Manipur (2.17).
The total fertility rate for women in rural areas fell from 3.7 children in 1992-93 to 2.1 children in 2019-21. The corresponding decline among women in urban areas went from 2.7 children in 1992-93 to 1.6 children in 2019-21. In all NFHS surveys, regardless of place of residence, the fertility rate peaks at ages 20-24, after which it declines steadily.
Another interesting aspect is that the number of children per woman decreases with the level of education of women. Women with no schooling have an average of 2.8 children, compared to 1.8 children for women with 12 or more years of schooling.