Children from the Mpape community play in a sewage drainage area. This drainage was the suspected source of well water contamination that led to the cholera outbreak investigated by Nigeria FELTP residents in April 2014. Image – CDC Global, Photo by Amibola Aman-Oloniyo – Nigeria/ via Wikimedia (CC SA 2.0)
New data analysis reveals that climate change is worsening food insecurity, natural disasters, water stress and how this affects violent conflict. The information is contained in the “Ecological Threat Report (ETR) 2022”, from the Institute for Economics and Peace.
The report draws on datasets from 228 countries and territories, 3,638 administrative districts and 250 cities. Projections have been made to assess their ability to manage their challenges – in the form of identified global threats and population growth – by 2050.
Taking one of these threats – air pollution – it costs the world $8.1 trillion a year, or 6.1% of global GDP. It is estimated that the ravages of air pollution have taken the lives of 6-9 million people.
The main conclusion of the report is that 750 million people worldwide are now affected by undernourishment, the Russian-Ukrainian war and additional inflationary pressures expected to aggravate this crisis. This conflict zone reflects 92 percent of the world’s undernourished people living in low to very low peace countries.
With the threats identified, 56% of the 228 countries and territories monitored by the ETR face an extreme ecological threat. This situation is exacerbated by population growth. Here, the 40 least peaceful countries in the world will increase their population by 1.3 billion by 2050, which represents 49% of the world’s population.
Population growth associated with identified threats will impact several key areas. For example, projections to 2050 show that much of sub-Saharan Africa will not be sustainable. This area is experiencing population growth estimated at 95%. Already 738 million people living in this region lack adequate food and all but one sub-Saharan African country faces extreme water stress.
Sub-Saharan Africa is characterized by severe food insecurity. It describes a state in which an individual has exhausted their food reserves and their health, nutrition and well-being are at serious risk. Food insecurity is linked to water stress, defined as “when more than 20 percent of the population does not have access to safe drinking water”. Without adequate water uptake, it is impossible to provide enough food. It is estimated that more than 1.4 billion people in 83 countries are now facing extreme water stress.
Another factor causing difficulties is the rise of megacities. Megacities are cities with more than 10 million inhabitants. The megacities most likely to face the toughest challenges are Kinshasa, Nairobi and Lagos. These cities have the highest population growth rates, the poorest sanitation, the highest levels of petty and organized crime, and widespread air pollution.
The main conclusion of the ETR is that without concerted action, current levels of ecological degradation will worsen, intensifying existing conflicts. Moreover, the combination of issues could become a catalyst for new conflicts, leading to an increase in forced migration.
Such action requires financial support and governance, without which areas with higher population growth will continue down the path of unsustainability.