Overall, 2021 will be the slowest year of population growth in US history.
New census data shows why: Both components of growth – gains from immigration and more births than deaths – have fallen sharply in recent years. In 2021, the population growth rate fell to an unprecedented 0.1%.
Yet within these sluggish numbers, a new pattern is emerging. Immigration, even at reduced levels, constitutes for the first time the majority of population growth.
This is partly because Americans are dying at higher rates and having fewer babies, trends that have accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic. But it is also because there are signs of a resumption of immigration.
Even after four years of tight immigration controls imposed under former President Donald J. Trump, the overall share of Americans born in other countries is not only increasing, but approaching levels last seen at the end of the 19th century.
The numbers are not at all what they once were. The latest report, from the Census Bureau’s population estimation program, showed a net gain of 244,000 new residents through immigration in 2021 – a far cry from the midpoint of the previous decade, when the bureau regularly attributed gains million or more annually to immigration. .
However, this decline is derisory compared to the slowdown in what demographers call “natural increase”, the excess of births over deaths. In 2021, that figure was 148,000, a tenth of the normal gain a decade ago, and below international migration for the first time ever.
In December, immigrants made up 14.1% of the U.S. population, matching the peak of the decades-long immigration boom in the 1960s and approaching the record high of 14.8% recorded in 1890, shortly before large numbers of Europeans begin to disembark ships at Ellis. Isle.
The foreign-born population is increasingly concentrated among middle-aged groups, with large numbers of immigrants living in the United States for many years. About 1 in 5 Americans between the ages of 40 and 64 were born abroad. And two-thirds of foreign-born residents have been in the country for more than a decade, according to census data.
In this regard, the country’s demographics reflect the long-term effects of the huge levels of immigration it experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.
“We are so used to being around people who have been here for decades and navigating seamlessly through American society that we almost forget they are immigrants,” said Tomás Jiménez, a Stanford professor who studies the immigration and assimilation.
The recent slowdown in immigration is the apparent result not only of tougher immigration policies, but also of measures taken in response to the Covid-19 health crisis. In the first months of 2020, the government sealed the borders with Mexico and Canada and limited international entry by air. The closure of US consular offices around the world has derailed visa processing.
But the data suggests tighter border restrictions may not have been the main factor in the slowdown. Many immigrants decided to leave the country. During the early years of Mr. Trump’s administration, the number of immigrants entering the country remained stable, while the number of departures rose, the figures show.
Some data suggests that the pace of immigration has accelerated in recent times. U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported an increase in law enforcement activity last year, and the Census Bureau’s monthly employment survey also detected an increase in the number of respondents born abroad at the end of 2021.
The economic and political circumstances that force people to leave their home countries have persisted, and the demand for foreign workers of all skill levels remains strong.
New arrivals since President Biden took office have come from around the world as the government lifted the ceiling on refugees, welcomed thousands of families seeking asylum at the southwestern border and reopened the door to foreign workers with temporary visas.
Among them is Jeff Quetho, 28, from Haiti, who crossed the border with his 3-year-old son, hoping to build a more stable life; Param Kulkarni, 34, an Indian scientist specializing in mental health technologies and artificial intelligence, who recently moved to New York; and Feroza Darabi, 22, from Afghanistan, who arrived in Phoenix with her 13-year-old nephew, Ali.
“I’m happy to be in a safe place,” Ms. Darabi said recently during a break from an English class for refugees at Friendly House in Glendale, Arizona.
Ms Darabi hopes she will soon be joined by family members who were unable to board the plane she and her nephew boarded in Kabul. “What I want most now is to have my family next to me,” she said.
If immigration even returns to its relatively modest pre-pandemic pace, it is possible that the share of foreign-born Americans will reach the all-time high of 14.8% since 1890.
The current labor shortage has increased calls for foreign labor, in fields as varied as catering and nursing, to fill vacant positions.
“The pandemic gives a little glimpse of what we could be facing if demand is robust and we don’t have workers,” said Pia Orrenius, a senior economist who studies immigration at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. . “We will see price and wage inflation, and growth will be stifled.”
“Immigration isn’t going to make this problem go away, but it certainly could help,” Ms Orrenius said.
If immigration had continued at a pre-pandemic rate, the economy would have an additional two million foreign-born workers in occupations such as manual labor and IT, according to a recent study by economists from the United States. University of California at Davis.
Although the pandemic is considered to be contributing to the slowdown in new immigration, it may also have helped sustain the number of foreign-born residents since this number depends not only on the number of immigrants arriving, but also on the number of departures. Virus-related travel restrictions have made it harder for immigrants to enter the United States, but they have also reduced the likelihood of them leaving, said Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Research Center.
“During the pandemic, you couldn’t leave the country,” he said.
Some of the growth in the foreign-born population is linked to a surge of migrants to the southwestern border that has continued, to varying degrees, since 2014. But it’s nearly impossible to know all of it. magnitude. Not only is there no reliable count of the number of people who enter the country illegally, but it is also unclear how many of them are quickly deported.
The declining birth rate that has resulted in foreign-born people becoming an increasingly large part of the population is part of a global demographic pattern. Historically, nations experience declining birth rates as they become more prosperous, a trend that can undermine that prosperity.
When low fertility is associated with low mortality, the result is a booming elderly population and relatively fewer workers to support them, a scenario faced by Japan and many European countries that later saw their economies Contract.
The departure of baby boomers from the labor force amid falling birth rates has highlighted the need to reverse the decline in new immigration. That will be crucial, analysts say, despite the large number of immigrants already living in the country — soon those who are here legally will get more from Social Security and Medicare.
Immigrants already here can provide part of the solution. Foreign-born residents typically account for a disproportionate share of all births, as recent immigrants are more likely than others to be in their prime childbearing years and to have more children.
Declining immigration from Mexico, traditionally the largest source of new immigrants, has contributed to the overall decline in birth rates in the United States.
But it will take bold policy moves to harness the economic advantages of the existing foreign-born population. Already, an estimated 11 million of them are undocumented, meaning they can only work in the underground economy. Mr. Biden took office with a promise to legalize them, but failed to win bipartisan support for such a move in Congress.
He took steps to revive legal immigration, repealing a proclamation from his predecessor barring the entry of foreigners on work visas.
Last month, his administration unveiled policies aimed at attracting international students and extending the length of time foreign graduates in science and technology fields can stay in the country to work, from one year to three years.
In December, the government announced that 20,000 seasonal guest worker visas would be added to the winter allocation of 33,000 to help employers in landscaping, construction and hospitality, who desperately need workers.
Yet Mr Biden’s Republican opponents have always resisted large increases in new immigration, and the question of how the country moves forward is likely to be debated as the campaign gathers pace for the congressional elections in This year.