RSS leader Mohan Bhagwat. Photo: PTI
- In his speech in Dussehra on October 5, RSS leader Mohan Bhagwat raised the issue of population growth, its religious “imbalance” and the need for population policy.
- Any alarm about population growth and the need to control the population of India should be considered dishonest and immediately repudiated.
- It is safe to say that India has entered the phase of low fertility: the total fertility rate, according to NFHS 5, has fallen to 2, just below the replacement rate of 2.1.
- It is also important to note that the desired TFR in India is now at a minimum of 1.6, indicating that most families want fewer children than they currently have.
- The real question is whether we are ready to harness the demographic dividend to produce economic gains instead of turning into an unemployment crisis.
The chorus around India’s population growth refuses to die. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leader Mohan Bhagwat, in his address on the occasion of Dussehra on October 5, raised the issue of population growth, its religious “imbalance” and the need for population policy . He said, “Population control and demographic balance based on religion is an important topic that can no longer be ignored.
Due to his stature in the Sangh Parivar and the prominence of annual Dussehra addresses, especially among RSS members and followers, it seems imminent that several more will join the choir.
But any alarm about population growth and the need to control India’s population must be considered dishonest and immediately repudiated. Indeed, India has been on a steady path of declining fertility and declining population growth for four decades now. It is actually safe to say that India has entered the low fertility phase. The total fertility rate (TFR), according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 5, fell to 2, a notch below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1.
TFR is defined as the number of children each woman will give birth to if she has lived to the end of her childbearing years and according to the prevailing age-specific fertility rate.
Except for four states (Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand), all Indian states have a TFR below 2.1. This decline followed a secular trend: ICF has steadily declined across the religious spectrum, including among Muslims.
It is also important to note that the desired TFR in India is now at a minimum of 1.6 and 1.8 for Muslims, indicating that most families want fewer children than they want. currently have.
This points to a gap in the need and supply of family planning methods – a paradigm shift that requires correct understanding and appropriate policy refocusing. Herein lies the first key opportunity to consolidate our gains on the family planning front by reaching hitherto unreached areas and people with appropriate methods and counseling to meet their unmet needs.
Another potentially transformative opportunity lies in the composition of our population. While the population of most countries is shrinking, the population of India is and will be increasing in the coming years, and most of this increase will be in young and working-age populations. India, with a median age of 28.7, is a young country with a potential demographic dividend, an opportunity that will last from 2005 to 2055, with the “working age ratio” being highest from 2021 to 2041.
How we prepare to harness it, by investing in education, health and skills development, and how many job opportunities we can create for our young people will decide whether we benefit or let it turn against us. Over the years, discussions about India’s potential demographic dividend have lessened, which is understandable because these conversations bring up the topic of employment, especially among the youth, whose unemployment rate is at its highest level.
It is not that the government, the Bharatiya Janata Party or the RSS ignore the situation. Dattatreya Hosabale, the general secretary of the RSS and second-in-command in the hierarchy of the RSS, spoke of high unemployment during a broadcast of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch on October 3.
In addition to opportunities, there will also be challenges. The first challenge is demographic the diversity. Simply put, India encompasses three major demographic groups: five states have a TFR comparable to least developed countries (greater than 2.1), 17 states have a TFR equal to or lower than 1.7; and the others have a FRR between 1.8 and 2.0.
As a result of these differential TFRs, there will be a surplus of young and “job-seeking” population in one part of India and an aging population in other parts. For example, according to population projections by the National Population Commission, 55% of India’s population growth between 2011 and 2036 will occur in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
Unbalanced population growth across states and geographic regions, as well as skewed economic development, will kick-start another challenge: youth migration from north-central states to western and southern states. from India. The north-central region will have a surplus population of working-age youth, while the south will need younger people to keep turning, maintain economic productivity and care for the elderly.
Another challenge will be the aging scenario. India is aging rapidly to become one big society of old people. Of the 104 million elderly people (aged 60 and over) in 2011, there will be 425 million in India by 2061, according to population projections from the United Nations Population Fund, a more than fourfold increase. One in four people in India in 2061 will be 60 or older. Another way to look at this is that India will be an old country before it becomes a rich country.
Of course, differential population growth will also lead to social, cultural, economic and political tensions between states. So, instead of endlessly raising the meaningless specter of population growth, imbalance and control, we need to focus on the upcoming demographic opportunities and challenges for India.
Devender Singh is a former UN staff member. He worked with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) from 2015 to 2021. He is currently a Visiting Senior Fellow at the Impact and Policy Research Institute (IMPRI) Delhi.