Population growth in adjacent regions expected to exceed that of Montreal: statistics agency

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At the same time, the aging of the province’s population should remain more pronounced in isolated regions.

The sprawling streets of suburban Longueuil are seen in an aerial view in Montreal Thursday, July 19, 2018. Photo by Allen McInnis /Montreal Gazette

The growth rate of the regions adjacent to Montreal will continue to exceed that of Montreal itself, according to the latest revision of a 20-year projection of the province’s demographic trends carried out by the Quebec Institute of Statistics.

In a statement released on Monday, the Institute said the largest increase projections are expected in areas surrounding Montreal, with the Laurentians seeing a 21% increase in population by 2041, while areas of Lanaudière and Montérégie would each record increases of 16%. and the Eastern Townships would see their population jump by 17%.

The projection is based on a series of factors, including the most recent inter-regional migration in the province as well as the regional distribution of permanent and temporary immigration, which is now less centered in Montreal. The Institute adds that the demographic trends observed for the first time during the pandemic seem to be “gradually redefining the future prospects of the regions of Quebec”.

The 20-year projection puts the population growth of the island of Montreal at 3%, but when the increases for the metropolitan area are calculated, the overall growth will be 10%, in line with the projected provincial average.

However, the researchers also predict that some of the more isolated regions of Quebec will experience less dramatic population increases and may even experience a drop in population growth, as is the case of the North Shore, which is expected to see its population decrease by 10 percent. hundred.

The aging of the Québec population should remain more pronounced in regions far from major urban centres. The potential labor pool of workers aged 20 to 64 in these regions could drop by double digits over the next two decades in Abitibi-Témiscamingue (10% drop), in Bas-Saint-Laurent ( down 11%), in Saguenay… Lac-Saint-Jean (down 12%) and Gaspé—Îles-de-la-Madeleine (down 14%) and Côte-Nord (down 22%).

  1. The figures compiled for the first half of 2021 suggest that Quebec will end the year with a number of births comparable to those recorded before 2020.

    Quebec’s population growth resumed in the first half of 2021

  2. Downtown Montreal has the second highest growth rate in the country