(Jil Center Square) – As Pennsylvania’s retired population grows in the future, its supporting working-age and school-age populations will shrink.
Such are the projections in a new report from the Independent Fiscal Office, noting stable population growth in the short term and a slight decline in the long term (-0.1% per year).
After a slight population growth since 2010 (0.2% per year), long-term projections seem to wipe out part of this growth. What is worrying is the population decline among young people.
“The school-age cohort (0-19 years) has shrunk by 0.4% per year from 2010 to 2020 and is projected to shrink by 0.9% per year in the short and long term,” the report notes.
While growth and decline have not been equal, with shifts favoring southeastern and suburban counties near major cities, such as The Center Square Previously reported, state emergency medical services faced funding difficulties. The loss of population also meant the loss of wealthresulting in a higher tax burden for Pennsylvanians who remain.
The IFO report gives little hope that the statewide pattern will change, even as some counties grow. The state will continue to lose working-age residents. These trends are driven by deaths exceeding births in the state and net migration into the state down from previous years.
“The working-age cohort (20-64) remained stable from 2010 to 2020 and is projected to contract by 0.6% per year in the short term and 0.5% per year in the long term,” the report notes. . “If labor force participation rates do not increase, this trend will limit economic and income growth in the future.”
Economic stagnation is a serious problem for state agencies to provide services and maintain existing infrastructure, but it is also a problem for caring for the burgeoning retired population.
“The cohort of retirees (aged 65-79) grew by 3.2% per year from 2010 to 2020 and is projected to grow by 2.8% per year in the short term and 0.9% per year in the long term “, notes the report. “The increase in this age cohort and the next age cohort implies a strong demand for health care and long-term care services in the future.”
Pennsylvania has lost residents in every age bracket from 0 to 24, in absolute terms, since 2010.
The average US state faces a similar problem of shrinking youth and aging residents, but Pennsylvania’s situation is a bit worse. In 2010, the state had 3.9 working-age residents for retirees, compared to a national average of 4.6. By 2030, Pennsylvania is projected to have 2.4 working-age residents versus retirees, compared to a national average of 2.7.
Unless dramatic change occurs, political leaders in Pennsylvania will face population stagnation and decline that could limit economic growth. Young people may have to settle for less as the budget struggles to provide health care and services to the aging population.