Joseph Chamie
Inter Press Service
While the world’s population of 8 billion continues to grow and is projected to reach 9 billion by 2037 and 10 billion by 2058, the considerable diversity in countries’ population growth continues into the 21st century.
At one extreme are some 50 countries, representing almost 30% of the current world population, whose populations are expected to decline over the next few decades.
By 2060, for example, these predicted population declines include 9% in Germany, 11% in Russia, 13% in Spain, 15% in China, 17% in Poland, 18% in Italy, 21% in South Korea, 22% in Japan and 31% in Bulgaria.
In terms of the magnitude of these population declines, the largest is in China with a projected decline of 218 million by 2060. After China, there are population declines in Japan and Russia of 27 million and 16 million , respectively.
At the other extreme, the population of 25 countries, representing almost 10% of the world’s population, is expected to more than double by 2060. These projected population increases by 2060 include 106% in Afghanistan, 109% in Sudan, 113% in Uganda, 136% in Tanzania, 142% in Angola, 147% in Somalia, 167% in the Democratic Republic of Congo and 227% in Niger.
In terms of population sizes expected to more than double, the largest is in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with a projected increase of 165 million by 2060. DRC is followed by population increases in Tanzania and in Niger of 89 million and 60 million, respectively.
Between the extremes of declining and doubling populations are 120 intermediate-growth countries. They make up about 60 percent of the current global population and are projected to have larger populations by 2060 to varying degrees.
These projected increases in population size include 13% in the United States, 17% in New Zealand, 20% in India, 24% in Canada, 29% in Australia, 38% in Saudi Arabia, 58% in Israel, 95% in Nigeria and 98% in Ethiopia.
Among the medium-growth countries, the highest expected population growth is in India with a projected increase of 278 million by 2060. India is followed by Nigeria and Ethiopia with population increases of 208 million and 121 million, respectively.
The persistent significant differences in population growth rates translate into a notable reorganization of countries according to population size.
For example, while in 1980 about half of the 15 largest country populations were developed countries, in 2020 that number has fallen to just one country, the United States. In addition, Nigeria, which was the eleventh largest population in 1980, was the seventh largest in 2020 and is projected to be the third largest population in 2060, with the United States dropping to fourth place (Table 1).
Also, China, the most populous country in the world, is expected to be overtaken by India in 2023. Moreover, by 2060, India’s population is expected to be nearly half a billion more than that of China, i.e. 1.7 billion against 1.2 billion, respectively.
The main explanation for the diversity in population growth rates is the difference in fertility levels. While countries whose population is projected to at least double by 2060 have fertility rates of four to six births per woman, those whose population is projected to decline have fertility rates below two births per woman.
About two-thirds of the world’s population of 8 billion live in a country, including the three most populous, China, India and the United States, where the fertility rate has fallen below replacement level. 2.1 births per woman. Moreover, most of these populations have experienced low fertility rates for decades.
In addition, many countries are experiencing fertility rates that are about half replacement level or less. For example, the total fertility rate fell to 1.2 births per woman for China and Italy, to 1.3 for Japan and Spain, with South Korea hitting a record low of 0.8 birth per woman.
The population of some countries with below replacement fertility, such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States, is expected to continue to grow due to international migration. However, if international migration to these countries stopped, their populations would begin to decline within a few decades, as would other countries with below replacement levels of fertility.
In the hope of avoiding population decline, many countries seek to bring their fertility rate down to at least replacement level. Among countries with below replacement fertility, almost two-thirds have adopted policies to increase their rates, including baby bonuses, child benefits, parental leave, tax incentives and flexible working hours .
More recently, China announced new measures to increase its below-replacement fertility rate by making it easier to work and raise a family. These measures include flexible work arrangements and preferential housing policies for families, as well as education, employment and tax support to encourage childbearing.
Despite government desires, policies and programs to increase fertility levels, a return to replacement level fertility is not expected in the foreseeable future.
The global average fertility rate of 2.4 births per woman in 2020, about half the levels of the 1950s and 1960s, is expected to fall to replacement level by mid-century and to 1.8 births per woman by mid-century. here the end of the 21st century. Therefore, by 2050, some 50 countries are expected to have smaller populations than today, and this number is expected to increase to 72 countries by 2100.
As many of these countries are in Europe, this continent’s current population of 744 million is expected to fall to 703 million by mid-century. By the end of the century, Europe’s population is expected to be one fifth less than it is today, ie from 744 million to 585 million.
By contrast, the populations of about three dozen countries with current fertility levels of more than four births per woman are expected to continue growing throughout the century.
Since most of these countries are in Africa, the population of this continent is expected to double by the middle of the century. Moreover, by the end of the 21st century, Africa’s population is expected to have tripled its current size, that is, from 1.3 billion to 3.9 billion.
In sum, considerable diversity in population growth is expected to continue throughout the 21st century. While the populations of many countries are expected to decrease, the populations of many others are expected to increase. The net result of this diversity is that the current world population of 8 billion is expected to grow to 10 billion by mid-century.
Joseph Chamie is a consultant demographer, former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters”.