UK population growth over the next decade driven by the arrival of 2.2 million immigrants

The UK’s population growth over the next decade will be driven by the arrival of 2.2 million migrants, with indigenous deaths outnumbering births, official figures revealed today.

The ONS said deaths would exceed the number of births by 59,000 in the decade to 2030 due to declining fertility rates around the world and the growing age of the ‘baby boomer generations. Post-war.

But this will be offset by the net increase in the number of migrants bringing the UK’s population from around 67.1 million in mid-2020 to 69.2 million in mid-2030.

The number over 85 in the UK is expected to almost double, from 1.7 million to 3.1 million in 2045.

However, estimates for the 2030 population have been revised downward by 0.6 million since 2018 and by 1.8 million for 2045.

ONS statistician James Robards said: “Britain’s population is expected to grow by 2.1 million over the ten years to mid-2030, with England’s population expected to grow faster than other countries British.

“These projections suggest slower growth than what we said previously. This is due to weaker assumptions about both future levels of fertility improvement and mortality.

“As more deaths and fewer births are expected, net international migration is expected to play an increasing role in population growth.

In the decade 2020 to 2030, the ONS predicts that there will be 6.6 million births, but 6.7 million deaths.

At the same time, long-term immigration will be 5.6 million, with 3.4 million people leaving Britain permanently.

His analysis noted: “In the 10 years between mid-2020 and mid-2030, natural change is expected to be negative at 59,000. During the same period, net migration is expected to lead to a total than 2.2 million people entering the UK.

During the 25-year period between mid-2020 and mid-2045, it is predicted that there will be 1.4 million more deaths than births. During this period, the population will increase by 3.9 million, again driven by a projected net migration of 5.3 million. ‘

“In the first year of the projections, there is an increase in the number of deaths, reflecting mortality from the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) in the year through mid-2021.

“The number of deaths is then expected to decline slightly and be followed by a steady increase in the number of deaths, as people born into the baby boom cohorts after World War II and into the 1960s grow older. . “